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Hlášení Refuge
#148202: "Map cards disproportionately result in storm cards being drawn"
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As previously reported by @Misscruella, in games with a draw-two mechanism (specifically noted this arena season in the setup with the "Map" card), playing the map tile will most likely result in a storm tile being drawn from your bag. It seems to occur at a >50-75% likelihood when a draw-two is played.
The previous report was closed for lack of evidence, so I wanted to ensure this was re-reviewed as this seems abnormal. Thank you.• Jaký prohlížeč používáte?
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Historie hlášení
5. pro 2024 5:57 • Petrichor32 • Tento návrh zatím nebyl analyzován vývojáři:
It may be how we perceive stats, but in the prior arena game I played (#596945443) with this setup, 6/7 out of the map tiles played revealed storm tiles. Of these:
-5 were after two tiles were drawn from the bag, 1 with one tile drawn each from the bag and the alternate pulled tile
-1 of the above 5 instances was necessitated because the alternate tile was already a storm tile
In the most recent game (#597760734), 11 map tiles were played in 8 separate moves (3 drawn by another map). Out of these, *8/8* maps tile turns were accompanied by a storm tile. Additionally:
-In 2/8 turns with map tiles, a storm was not drawn as the result of playing the map, but was the alternate tile initially drawn alongside it
-In 2 of these 8 turns, the alternate tile was selected and the storm was the one tile drawn from the bag
-In the 3 of these 8 where a map drew a second map, a storm tile was also drawn every time
-The final one of these turns (if I've kept everything straight here) was just a map followed by a double pull from the bag, which resulted in one normal and one storm tile.
It may be how we perceive stats, but in the prior arena game I played (#596945443) with this setup, 6/7 out of the map tiles played revealed storm tiles. Of these:
-5 were after two tiles were drawn from the bag, 1 with one tile drawn each from the bag and the alternate pulled tile
-1 of the above 5 instances was necessitated because the alternate tile was already a storm tile
In the most recent game (#597760734), 11 map tiles were played in 8 separate moves (3 drawn by another map). Out of these, *8/8* maps tile turns were accompanied by a storm tile. Additionally:
-In 2/8 turns with map tiles, a storm was not drawn as the result of playing the map, but was the alternate tile initially drawn alongside it
-In 2 of these 8 turns, the alternate tile was selected and the storm was the one tile drawn from the bag
-In the 3 of these 8 where a map drew a second map, a storm tile was also drawn every time
-The final one of these turns (if I've kept everything straight here) was just a map followed by a double pull from the bag, which resulted in one normal and one storm tile.
4. úno 2025 1:29 • MIB5799 • Tento návrh zatím nebyl analyzován vývojáři:
First: You are only seeing your few isolated games. There are tens of thousands of other games where this does not happen, but you don't see them.
The odds of this happening "honestly" are magnitudes higher than winning the lottery, but people win that all the time and it's not questioned.
The stats are only relevant if the number of tiles IN THE BAG is included with them for each and every play of Map.
For instance, if both storms are in your bag, and you draw 2 at start of turn, choose Map, and take both from the bag, your chance of getting a storm is...
10 left: 38%
9 left: 42%
8 left: 46%
6 left: 60%
Etc.
But lets look at Game 597760734 move 65.
Draw 2, no storm, 8 left. Get another Map, play it. 6 left, and 2 of them Storms.
When you add up the odds in that, you only has a 13% chance of NOT getting a Storm.
That's only 1 in 8.
The fact is Map actually magnifies the chance of getting a storm by a huge amount. With 10 cards, your initial pull is 62% safe. But pulling 2 more cards drops that to 33%. And 2 more makes only 13%.
Your odds are a lot better with a higher bag size, and by taking the alt and only drawing 1.
PS: Map is a bad card and sucker buy. I've never bought it playing.
Shepherd is a super bargain though
The odds of this happening "honestly" are magnitudes higher than winning the lottery, but people win that all the time and it's not questioned.
The stats are only relevant if the number of tiles IN THE BAG is included with them for each and every play of Map.
For instance, if both storms are in your bag, and you draw 2 at start of turn, choose Map, and take both from the bag, your chance of getting a storm is...
10 left: 38%
9 left: 42%
8 left: 46%
6 left: 60%
Etc.
But lets look at Game 597760734 move 65.
Draw 2, no storm, 8 left. Get another Map, play it. 6 left, and 2 of them Storms.
When you add up the odds in that, you only has a 13% chance of NOT getting a Storm.
That's only 1 in 8.
The fact is Map actually magnifies the chance of getting a storm by a huge amount. With 10 cards, your initial pull is 62% safe. But pulling 2 more cards drops that to 33%. And 2 more makes only 13%.
Your odds are a lot better with a higher bag size, and by taking the alt and only drawing 1.
PS: Map is a bad card and sucker buy. I've never bought it playing.
Shepherd is a super bargain though
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